Tropical Storm DALILA Advisory lun, 01.07.

ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
0300 UTC MON JUL 01 2013

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME   12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       2       2       4       9      18
TROP DEPRESSION  6       7       7       6      18      28      45
TROPICAL STORM  91      75      60      51      63      57      36
HURRICANE        3      18      31      41      15       7       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        3      16      25      31      13       6       1
HUR CAT 2        X       2       4       8       2       1       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       2       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   45KT    55KT    60KT    65KT    55KT    50KT    40KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   2(12)   1(13)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   3(11)   1(12)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)

CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)

SAN BLAS       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   X(13)

P VALLARTA     34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   6(16)   3(19)   X(19)   1(20)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1  11(12)   6(18)   4(22)   4(26)   X(26)   X(26)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MANZANILLO     34  1   5( 6)   5(11)   4(15)   3(18)   1(19)   X(19)

L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)  12(22)   7(29)   1(30)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)   5(21)   1(22)   X(22)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECASTER STEWART