Tropical Storm TWENTYSIX Advisory gio, 19.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LIMITED AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION
LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 182305Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI
AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS)
FROM KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) SOUTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) WHICH IS CAUSING THE CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST. TD 26W IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS OF TD 26W
REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OUTFLOW FROM TY
25W, PREVENTING TD 26W FROM ESTABLISHING OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W HAS NOT
CHANGED HOWEVER, THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT JTWC
STANDARD PRACTICE OF DISSIPATING SYSTEMS THAT ARE BEING ABSORBED BY
LARGER SYSTEMS.
   B. TD 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AROUND TAU
12, TRANSIT ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES, AND TRACK OUT INTO THE
PACIFIC OCEAN PRIOR TO TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY INTENSIFY
DESPITE A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING
INTO THE CIRCULATION WILL ALLOW INTENSIFICATION WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER LAND.
AROUND TAU 24, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE EASTERN PHILIPPINES, IT
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH TYPHOON 25W (LAN), EVENTUALLY BECOMING
ABSORBED BY TY 25W BY TAU 48. THE FORECAST SHOWS THAT TD 26W WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT IS ABSORBED BY 25W, HOWEVER, THE EXTENSIVE WIND
FIELD OF 25W WILL PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF WHERE TD 26W IS DISSIPATING. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
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