Tropical Storm CHAMPI Advisory mer, 21.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF
CORE CONVECTION, SPECIFICALLY ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF A THE
VISIBLE DIMPLE/EMBEDDED CENTER. THE POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, REINFORCED BY A 202225Z SSMIS MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN KEEPING WITH A
SLIGHT FALL IN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW. EQUATORWARD
FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG, OFFSETTING 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF VWS. THE
SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR
EXTENSION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STR
AXIS. EXPECT MARGINAL TO NO INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL BE OFFSET BY
INCREASED VWS. BEYOND THAT TIME, COOLER SSTS WILL START TO HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE SYSTEM BRINGING FURTHER DECAY. FINALLY, BY TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT GAINS LATITUDE. ADDITION, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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