Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM Advisory ven, 03.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE
RECENT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WEAKENING AND SHEARING TO THE WEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TUTT CELL THAT WAS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM BEGAN TO TRACK SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 HOURS,
POSITIONING ITSELF JUST UPSTREAM OF TS 09W. THIS HAS INCREASED THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CREATED CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THESE
IMPACTS ARE SUPPRESSING AND WEAKENING THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE LACK OF A
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE CURRENT STATE OF THE
SYSTEM, THE INTENSITY COULD BE LOWER. TS CHAN-HOM IS DRIFTING SLOWLY
WESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND FORECASTED INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24
HAS BEEN LOWERED DUE TO THE UNFORESEEN POSITIONING AND RELATED
IMPACTS OF THE TUTT CELL JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION. THE TUTT
CELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
BEFORE IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.
   B. TS 09W WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE TUTT CELL
POSITIONING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TS CHAN-HOM WILL TURN TO THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE TUTT CELL
RETROGRADES TO THE EAST AND GETS REABSORBED INTO THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF THE TUTT CELL. BEYOND TAU 24, TS 09W WILL
BEGIN TO REINTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND
DECREASED VWS AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHWESTWARD.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS CHAN-HOM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER INTENSIFY AS VWS DECREASES AND THE
REMAINING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STAY FAVORABLE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCHANGED; HOWEVER, THEY TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH TUTT
CELL INTERACTION. DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL ISSUES AND THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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