Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM Advisory mar, 07.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 737 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND CONVECTIVE BANDS
HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON A 062224Z 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATUS OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY 09W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
STEADILY PEAKING AT 125 KNOTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY CHAN-HOM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF
THE STEERING STR, MAKING LANDFALL BEFORE TAU 120. VWS AND UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD; HOWEVER, COOLER SST AND LOWER OHC VALUES, AS WELL AS LAND
INTERACTION AFTER TAU 96, WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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