Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM Advisory ven, 10.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 39//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO
DEPICT VIGOROUS FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 15 NM
DIAMETER EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TYPHOON
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE VWS AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TY
09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, MAINTAINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY IN THE
SHORT TERM. AFTERWARD, UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
START THE WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 36, TY 09W WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS
IT TRACKS OVER EASTERN CHINA.  CONCURRENTLY, AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH, WEAKENING THE STR AND
ALLOWING TY 09W TO TURN POLEWARD. BY TAU 72, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO
REORIENT AND WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD.
   C. TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM
TAKING THE TYPHOON FURTHER INLAND, MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT EMERGING THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN
YELLOW SEA. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
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