Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM Advisory sab, 11.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 43//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A PINHOLE EYE EVEN AS OVERALL CONVECTION HAS ERODED AND BECOME
MORE SHALLOW, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF INCREASING VWS (20-30 KNOTS).
HOWEVER, EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE
VWS AND PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE WANING CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY CHANG-NOM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
YELLOW SEA TOWARDS THE KOREAN DMZ AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS,
PARTIAL LAND INTERACTION, AND COOLING SSTS. TY 09W WILL LIKELY REDUCE
TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY TAU 36, WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF SOUTH KOREA. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL TRACK BUT POOR
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK SPEEDS. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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