Tropical Storm ONE Advisory gio, 16.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 36 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE INUNDATED BY HIGH VWS,
DISPLACING THE CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC. THE LLCC REMAINS OBSCURED,
HOWEVER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES
AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TY HALOLA IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES; HOWEVER, THE HIGH VWS IS
OFFSETTING THESE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND PREVENTING INTENSIFICATION.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 01C WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS LEADING TO MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE
DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND TAU 48, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AS THE CYCLONE GAINS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND BEGINS TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY HALOLA WILL REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR. SOME OF THE NUMERIC MODELS,
HOWEVER, INDICATE A MORE POLEWARD TRACK TOWARDS RECURVATURE. EXPECT
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE TAPS FURTHER INTO THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
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