Tropical Storm ONE Advisory dom, 19.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C (HALOLA)
WARNING NR 36//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 701
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, HOWEVER, THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTIALLY-EXPOSED AND ILL-
DEFINED. AN 182320Z METOP-B 89 GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE BANDING, ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM, WRAPPING INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT
OF THE LLCC. THIS IMAGERY PROVIDES FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION. ALTHOUGH REMAINING SLIGHTLY ASYMMETRIC WITH DRIER AIR OVER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SUGGESTS GRADUAL MOISTENING, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AN
IMMINENT RE-INTENSIFICATION PHASE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE RECENT SSMIS WIND PRODUCT AND
PERSISTENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
TUTT CELL IS DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY, WHICH HAS
ALLOWED FOR SLIGHTLY IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTING. TD 01C IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD HALOLA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
DOMINANT STR THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE TUTT CELL / TUTT CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN. AFTER TAU 24, THE TUTT CELL IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE,
REDUCING THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY
BEGIN TO INTENSIFY. IN ADDITION, TD HALOLA IS FORECAST TO GAIN A
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND ENCOUNTER REDUCED VWS.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 105 NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO GAIN A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
STEERING STR; CONTINUING THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THE RE-CURVE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS LOW DUE PRIMARILY TO THE POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY
AND INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE RE-CURVE PHASE. LOW CONFIDENCE
REMAINS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPLEX INTERACTION
BETWEEN TD HALOLA AND THE TUTT CELL.//
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