Tropical Storm TWO Advisory sab, 15.04.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 422 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE PGTW FIX, WITH NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO SUPPORT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, BASED ON THE
141312Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF 30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY
FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE PRIMARY HINDRANCE TO DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN THE POOR
ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC. TD 02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE EASTERN VISAYAS BEFORE TAU 12. DUE TO THE POOR LOW LEVEL
ORGANIZATION AND APPROACHING LANDFALL, NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION OVER
THE MARITIME CONTINENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DISSIPATION OF TD 02W
BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE REMNANTS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER TAU
36 BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO REGENERATE DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.//
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