Tropical Storm DUJUAN Advisory dom, 27.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
WITH VERY GOOD BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 33 NM EYE; SUPPORTING THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 261750Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A NEARLY CLOSED OFF MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY
AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 115 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM KNES AND PGTW AS WELL AS THE BETTER SYMMETRY OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS. TY DUJUAN IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY DUJUAN WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STEERING STR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
SYSTEM. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS.
BEYOND TAU 24, TY 21W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO MAKING LANDFALL IN
NORTHERN TAIWAN AND ENCOUNTERING THE CHUNGYANG MOUNTAINS. DUE TO THE
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A LEEWARD JUMP SCENARIO AS THE TYPHOON PASSES
THROUGH TAIWAN, THERE IS LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE TAU 48 POSITION.
BY TAU 72, EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
PROPAGATES THROUGH SOUTHEAST CHINA.
   C. EXPECT COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96 IN SOUTH
CENTRAL CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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