Tropical Storm HAIMA Advisory ven, 14.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
330 NM SOUTH OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH BUILDING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. A 141703Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONVECTIVE NOTCH WHICH SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM. TD 25W IS DEVELOPING IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-
10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY HIGH.
TD 25W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL CONDITIONS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL TO GO THROUGH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION
PHASE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE PHILIPPINE
SEA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
OVERALL STEERING PATTERN AND SUPPORTS THE NEAR TERM TRACK FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TD 25W WILL REACH SUPER TYPHOON
INTENSITY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. A STRONGER
STR TO THE NORTH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TOWARDS LUZON.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN
INITIAL WARNING WITH ONLY A 200NM SPREAD AT TAU 120. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE EXPANSIVE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE, THERE MAY BE ERRATIC MOVEMENT IN
THE NEAR TERM AS IT CONSOLIDATES WHICH LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL FORECAST.//
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