Tropical Storm MERBOK Advisory lun, 12.06.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (MERBOK)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE DEPTH AS FEEDER BANDS
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 112252Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF SATCON AND AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). TS 04W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
    B. TS MERBOK IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12
JUST TO THE EAST OF HONG KONG AND TRACK NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD
OVER LAND AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL FUEL SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
EASTERN CHINA, IN ADDITION TO INCREASED VWS WILL CAUSE RAPID EROSION
AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE REMNANTS OF TS 04W WILL EXIT
INTO THE YELLOW SEA WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION.
THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR
AND MID TERM LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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