Tropical Storm SOUDELOR Advisory sab, 01.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 441 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 312354Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 35 KNOTS
ALONG THE NOTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION, AND SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON T2.5 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES, AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
DATA. A TIME SERIES OF RECENT DATA SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS SLOWLY
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. ANIMATED VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE TUTT CELL
LOCATED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO PULL POLEWARD AND
STARTING TO PROVIDE AN OUTFLOW MECHANISM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LIGHT, AT 5-10 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS IN THE AREA ARE VERY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS SOUDELOR IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
WELL-ESTABLISHED STR. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS MOTION, WITH NAVY MODELS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
ENVELOPE. MODEL SPREAD IS APPROXIMATELY 150 NM AS THE CYCLONE PASSES
OVER THE MARIANAS ISLAND CHAIN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, PARTICULARLY AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. AS THE LLCC
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED, THESE CONDITIONS WILL MAKE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION LIKELY AFTER TAU 12. AN INTENSIFICATION TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72. BASED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE LEADING TO CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION WILL BE TEMPERED BY A DECREASE IN SSTS AND
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS WELL AS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VWS. ALTHOUGH
MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS FAN OUT,  NONE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS ANY
INDICATION OF A RECURVATURE SCENARIO. THE JTWC TRACK IS POSITIONED
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS IN FAVOR OF THE GFS, HWRF, AND EUROPEAN MODELS BASED
ON THEIR INITIALIZATION OF THE STR. DUE TO THE INCREASING MODEL
SPREAD BEYOND TAU 72, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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