Tropical Storm GONI Advisory dom, 23.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 37//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION IS BUILDING AROUND THE CENTER AND A NEW
EYE FEATURE IS FORMING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND
SUPPORED BY RJTD RADAR FIXES AND A 222248Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PARTIAL
PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CIMSS UPPER LEVEL
WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 16W HAS ADDED A POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN ADDITION TO EXISTING ROBUST EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LIGHT
AT 5-10 KNOTS. TY 16W IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST. SSTS ARE ALSO
VERY FAVORABLE AT 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE EAST BUILDS INTO A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL
PATTERN, AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES SUBTROPICAL. VWS IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL AROUND TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY, GONI�??S TRACK IS
ALIGNED WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE KUROSHIO CURRENT, PROVIDING VERY
FAVORABLE SSTS LEADING UP TO ITS INITIAL LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, CALLING FOR SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE NOTED ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 48, THE FORECAST TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO DEFLECT TO A MORE POLEWARD DIRECTION AS THE STEERING STR
BUILDS TO THE EAST. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION WITH
KYUSHU, FOLLOWED BY COOLER WATERS OF THE SEA OF JAPAN AND
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED VWS (35-50 KNOTS) WILL SERVE TO BEGIN A
RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AT THE SAME TIME AS IT IS UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY GONI WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING FURTHER BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. GONI WILL COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 96 AT THE SAME TIME AS IT IS MAKES LANDFALL INTO RUSSIA NEAR
VLADIVOSTOK. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48
THEN SPREADS WITH VARYING DEGREES OF A NORTHWESTWARD TURN, HOWEVER,
COAMPS TC IS NOW THE SOLE NORTH-RUNNING OUTLIER. GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
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