Tropical Storm MALAKAS Advisory mer, 14.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 647 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AS A COLD DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE BUILDS OVER THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 140528Z AMSU-
B MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TUTT CELL  TO
THE NORTHEAST THAT IS ENHANCING EASTWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS PROVIDING
VENTILATION TO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) REMAIN FAVORABLE NEAR 29 CELSIUS. TS 18W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 18W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72. TS MALAKAS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS VWS
DECREASES AND OUTFLOW IMPROVES. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK OF 120
KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST; HOWEVER, THE CONSENSUS TREND CONTINUES
TO SHIFT THE TRACK TO THE WEST, CLOSER TO TAIWAN.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 18W WILL REACH THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE STEERING STR AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE STRONG MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, MAKING LANDFALL IN KYUSHU JUST AFTER TAU 96.
STRONG VWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE INSTABILITY
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
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