Tropical Storm SON-TINH Advisory gio, 25.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 242121Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD, PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS OVER
THE SYSTEM AND IS PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE STRONG
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
TO THE EAST HAVE BEEN AMPLIFYING THE POLEWARD PORTION OF THE RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS 24W IS FORECASTED TO STEER GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY
THE STR THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE CYCLE, TRACKING OUT THE CENTRAL ISLANDS
OF THE PHILIPPINES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA  IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
TS 24W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND REACH A PEAK OF
80 KNOTS JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AT TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 24W WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF VIETNAM, JUST SOUTH OF HANOI. AFTER LANDFALL, TS 24W WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWS IN TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AND ENCOUNTERS THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. DUE TO THE WELL UNDERSTOOD STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUED TIGHT MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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