Tropical Storm ANNABELLE Advisory mar, 01.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 47//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 802 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A 6-NM RAGGED EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ASYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. A 010620Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH A ROUND MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION,
HOWEVER, THERE IS ABOUT A 15-NM SPREAD IN POSITION FIXES DUE TO
PARALLAX ERROR BETWEEN THE GOES AND MTSAT-2 IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-
LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM
ALL AGENCIES. TY 03C IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR 03C AND
SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TY 03C IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH TAU
24 BUT SHOULD TURN SLOWLY WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS WEAKLY TO THE
NORTH. DUE TO THE WEAK STR AND PERSISTENT MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF 34 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN WITH DYNAMIC GUIDANCE SHOWING A WIDE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH VARYING TRACK SPEEDS. AFTER TAU 36, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD BY TAU 60, WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE STR TO BUILD TO THE NORTH. TY 03C SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE
WESTWARD. TY 03C IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 03C IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
TRACK UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TY 03C IS
FORECAST TO PEAK AT 125 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AND SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS OVER A POOL OF WARMER SST (30 TO 32 CELSIUS).
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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