Tropical Storm MUJIGAE Advisory dom, 04.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (MUJIGAE) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 22W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 316 NM EAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED CONVECTIVE
BANDING TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO A 13-NM DIAMETER EYE. A 032334Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDS SURROUNDING
AN APPARENT MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
AND AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS RAISED TO 95 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE
AND AN INCREASE IN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES (RANGING FROM 90 TO
102 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM SSTS
(30+ DEGREES CELSIUS), UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 22W REMAINS
IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
RADIAL OUTFLOW SUPPORTING THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. MUJIGAE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST
INTENSITY HAS INCREASED DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS OVER A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
   B. TY MUJIGAE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER WATER; HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES SOUTHERN CHINA, LAND INTERACTION WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN 22W.
AFTERWARDS, MUJIGAE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
NNNN