Tropical Storm NEOGURI Advisory gio, 10.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING
NR 29//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 74 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM THE JAPANESE METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY SHOW THE
SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL KYUSHU AS THE CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BE GREATLY SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH THE LLCC HAS BECOME PARTIALLY
EXPOSED, IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AS IT HAS BECOME BROAD,
ELONGATED, AND UNRAVELED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS ACCELERATING ALONG THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE STRONG
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VENTILATION TO THE
REMNANT WAYWARD CONVECTION. TS 08W HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS NEOGURI WILL STRADDLE THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINLAND JAPAN
UNTIL TAU 24 BEFORE IT EXITS BACK OVER WATER INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12,
BECOMING A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 36. LAND INTERACTION, INCREASING VWS,
AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALL CONTRIBUTE TO ITS RAPID
DECAY. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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