Tropical Storm LINFA Advisory ven, 03.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHWEST DUE TO 15 TO 20 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP
AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 022314Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TS LINFA IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS 10W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH
TAU 72, SKIRTING THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF LUZON. TS LINFA WILL
STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48, REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH, DUE TO
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT THAT WILL
OFFSET THE MODERATE VWS.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 10W WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AS IT ROUNDS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXTENSION OF THE STEERING STR AND WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT SKIRTS THE EASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN. IN ADDITION, THE
APPROACH OF TS 09W FROM THE EAST MAY INITIATE A DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION (DCI), CAUSING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TS LINFA TO
BECOME MORE COMPLEX. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM; HOWEVER, THEY DIVERGE NEAR TAU 36 WITH
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE RECURVING THE SYSTEM NORTH. THIS
DIVERGENCE, IN ADDITION TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF POTENTIAL DCI WITH TS
09W, LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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