Tropical Storm MATMO Advisory sab, 19.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 644 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A DIMPLE FEATURE -
PRECURSOR TO THE FORMATION OF AN EYE - AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
FURTHER DEEPENED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W WILL BEGIN TRACKING MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS A TRANSITORY
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS JAPAN WEAKENS THE STR. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE. THESE,
PLUS PERENNIALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA
WILL PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS
THE CYCLONE HEADS TOWARD TAIWAN.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS MATMO WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY AS THE STR REMAINS SOLID, UNPERTURBED BY A SECONDARY,
ALBEIT WEAKER, TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF TAIWAN AND THE CHINESE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 85 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. THE NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE JAPANESE TRACKERS THAT ARE RIGHT
OUTLIERS.//
NNNN
NNNN