Tropical Storm AERE Advisory gio, 13.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE)
WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION(TD) 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, TD 22W
(AERE) HAS RAPIDLY REORGANIZED AND REDEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONSOLIDATED AROUND AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 122211Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY PASS INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE SSMIS-BASED WINDS INDICATE A BROAD
SWATH OF 35KT WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, AND STARTING TO
WRAP INTO THE WESTERN OUTSKIRTS OF THE SYSTEM. THE WIND FIELD TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST REMAINS MUCH WEAKER, BUT WINDS REMAIN NEAR 20-25 KTS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE MICROWAVE AND MSI
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KTS BASED
ON AN INITIAL PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM
HAS MOVED INTO A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW (5-10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE
OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM, AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING SINCE THIS SYSTEM HAS REGENERATED
AND ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36,
PEAKING AT 45 KTS BY 36, AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN VERY
FAVORABLE. THE ACTUAL PEAK INTENSITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND
OCCUR AFTER TAU 36 BUT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. LIMITED AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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