Tropical Storm MARIA Advisory ven, 19.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (MARIA)
WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 875 NM
NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
A COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE PAST 12 HOURS, ADDITIONALLY,
THE MSI SHOWS THE LLCC HAS STARTED TO ELONGATE AND DEFORM IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, WHICH SUGGESTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE WIND
FIELD, AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 181947Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWING 30 KNOT
WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. WEAKER WINDS WERE OBSERVED
IN THE REMAINING QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEARS (VWS) (20 TO 25 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS
HINDERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD MARIA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK AROUND THE STR. UNFAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PERSISTENT HIGH VWS, AND DEFORMATION OF
THE LLCC, WILL LEAD TO THE FULL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. NUMERIC
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LLCC WILL TRACK EASTWARD, TURNING TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH WBAR BEING THE SOLE OUTLIER
BY INDICATING THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTH AROUND THE STR. THIS
FORECAST KEEPS THE TRACK SOUTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
AS THEY APPEAR TO LOSE THE LLCC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK REMAINS HIGH EVEN IN LIGHT OF THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE.//
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