This website uses cookies. Read about how we use cookies. OK

most recent model run

                               
Base
lun 29.08 03 GMT
  • stampa
  • Info
Ingrandimento

Max. wind velocity NAM Modello

Modello:

NAM: North American Mesoscale Forecast System "NOAA"

Aggiornato:
4 times per day, from 0:00, 06:00, 12:00 and 18:00 UTC
Greenwich Mean Time:
12:00 UTC = 13:00 CET
Risoluzione:
32km
Parametro:
Maximum wind velocity of convective wind gusts
Descrizione:
The method of Ivens (1987) is used by the forecasters at KNMI to predict the maximum wind velocity associated with heavy showers or thunderstorms. The method of Ivens is based on two multiple regression equations that were derived using about 120 summertime cases (April to September) between 1980 and 1983. The upper-air data were derived from the soundings at De Bilt, and observations of thunder by synop stations were used as an indicator of the presence of convection. The regression equations for the maximum wind velocity (wmax ) in m/s according to Ivens (1987) are:
  • if Tx - θw850 < 9°C
    wmax = 7.66 + 0.653⋅(θw850 - θw500 ) + 0.976⋅U850
  • if Tx - θw850 ≥ 9° C
  • wmax = 8.17 + 0.473⋅(θw850 - θw500 ) + (0.174⋅U850 + 0.057⋅U250)⋅√(Tx - θw850)

where
  • Tx is the maximum day-time temperature at 2 m in K
  • θwxxx the potential wet-bulb temperature at xxx hPa in K
  • Uxxx the wind velocity at xxx hPa in m/s.
The amount of negative buoyancy, which is estimated in these equations by the difference of the potential wet-bulb temperature at 850 and at 500 hPa, and horizontal wind velocities at one or two fixed altitudes are used to estimate the maximum wind velocity. The effect of precipitation loading is not taken into account by the method of Ivens. (Source: KNMI)
NWP:
Numerical weather prediction uses current weather conditions as input into mathematical models of the atmosphere to predict the weather. Although the first efforts to accomplish this were done in the 1920s, it wasn't until the advent of the computer and computer simulation that it was feasible to do in real-time. Manipulating the huge datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to do this on a resolution fine enough to make the results useful requires the use of some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. A number of forecast models, both global and regional in scale, are run to help create forecasts for nations worldwide. Use of model ensemble forecasts helps to define the forecast uncertainty and extend weather forecasting farther into the future than would otherwise be possible.

Wikipedia, Numerical weather prediction, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction(as of Feb. 9, 2010, 20:50 UTC).

These charts are for guidance only, actually gusts may be considerably higher than those shown.

Max. wind velocity NAM lun 29.08.2016 03 GMT
Mouseover effect
Times:   
 
 
available      
 
selected      
 
available (previous base)     
 
not available