Tropical Storm BAVI Advisory dom, 23.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
COMPACT SYSTEM WITH FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHENED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, BUT THE CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 222259Z
SSMIS 91GHZ PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE, ALBEIT HEDGED ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0-3.5 (45-55 KNOTS), BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE.  THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. TS 09W IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WELL-ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
ROUNDS THE STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST, THROUGH TAU 24, BEFORE
TURNING NORTHWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS. THE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND VERY WARM SSTS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO
95 KTS BY TAU 48. WINDS MAY REACH ABOVE THE FORECASTED 100 KNOTS
BETWEEN TAU 48 TO TAU 72, WHICH IS NOT DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST
PRODUCTS. CROSS TRACK SPREAD HAS IMPROVED TO 60NM AT TAU 72.
HOWEVER, INTENSITY GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD SHOWS HIGH VARIANCE,
LENDING POOR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, STRONG (20-25 KTS) VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TS
09W DURING THE NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARDS NORTH KOREA. ADDITIONALLY,
AROUND TAU 96, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND COOL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (24-24 DEGREES CELSIUS) WILL FURTHER WEAKEN
TS 09W. THERE IS A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVEMENT, WITH A 220 NM SPREAD IN ALONG TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 96. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 96 AND RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE AS IT MOVES INLAND DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
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