Tropical Storm NARI Advisory gio, 10.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (NARI) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AS THE SYSTEM
BECAME MORE SYMMETRIC AND COMPACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM AGENCY FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES TO REFLECT THE DEEPENING TREND.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE SAME EASTERLY FLOW IS
ENHANCING WESTWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD
TRACK ACROSS LUZON. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
90 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES LUZON UNDER THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTERWARDS,
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRAGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF
LUZON, THEN EXIT INTO SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS NARI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SCS UNDER THE PERSISTENT STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE STR. IT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY AS THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
DISCUSSED ABOVE RESUME. BASED ON THE TIGHT AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC
MODELS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
LAID VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.   //
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