Tropical Storm MAYSAK Advisory sab, 29.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MAYSAK)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 601 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTH AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 282200Z WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 282141Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM RJTD, AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 53 KNOTS FROM 290000Z AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS FROM 282140Z. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CONVERGENT FLOW FROM A WESTWARD PROPAGATING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL POSITIONED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION TO WARM SST, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) REMAINS HIGH. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY IN A UNCERTAIN STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS MAYSAK WILL BEGIN A SLOW, GENERALLY NORTHWARD TURN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A REORIENTATION OF THE STEERING RIDGES TAKES PLACE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH VERY WARM SST, ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (< 10 KTS) VWS. ADDITIONALLY, THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTWARD PROPAGATING TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG THE BUILDING STR, LEADING TO AN INTENSITY OF 85 KTS BY TAU 24. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO REORIENT, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND FURTHER INTENSIFY TO 95 KTS. AFTER TAU 36, TS MAYSAK WILL BEGIN A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND LEAD TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE WITH A MAXIMUM CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 170 NM AT TAU 72. AT THIS TIME, ECMWF, JGSM AND UKMET ALL CONVERGE WEST OF THE JTWC MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS, WHILE THE GFS (DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE) AND AFUM TRACKS LIE TO THE EAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, THERE IS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL (TAU 0-72) PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REORIENT AND DEEPEN AFTER TAU 72 AND BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM OF TS 09W. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 96. DURING THIS TIME, SSTS WILL BEGIN TO COOL SLIGHTLY. DESPITE THIS, GIVEN THE INCREASED TRACK SPEED THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS AS IT REACHES THE STR AXIS BY TAU 96 DUE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR AND OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. AT TAU 96, TS MAYSAK WILL ROUND THE STR AND BEGIN TO ENTER COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING VWS. THESE CONDITIONS, COUPLED WITH DECREASING DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT DUE TO AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING TO 70 KTS BY TAU 120 AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS ONLY OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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