MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR 64// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY TO 25 KTS, ALLOWING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BEGIN BUILDING BACK CLOSER TO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE CLEAR LLCC IN THE VISIBLE LOOP AND RJTD RADAR FIXES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE IN A 252329Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON DECREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS STEADILY DECLINING, AND TS 01C HAS NOT YET TAPPED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DEVELOPMENT. TS 01C IS ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYER REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TS 01C IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT SKIRTS THE COAST OF KYUSHU. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF HONSHU AND DISSIPATE OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CONTINUED HIGH VWS AND COLD SSTS AS WELL AS FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE NEARBY COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO TAU 36, PARTICULARLY IF THE POST-RECURVATURE TRACK SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD OVER LAND. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND SLIGHTLY INSIDE AND FASTER THAN THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS MEAN. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//