Tropical Storm DAMREY Advisory gio, 02.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 11W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF JEJU- DO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A 25 NM RAGGED EYE WITH A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WHILE
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS WARMING CLOUD TOPS, INDICATIVE OF A
SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. A 012218Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE OUTFLOW FROM TY 10W THAT HAD BEEN DEGRADING TY
11W, HAS WEAKENED DUE TO AN INCREASE IN DISTANCE BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS AS TY 10W BECAME QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR TAIWAN. TY 11W IS
CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRACK TOWARD EASTERN CHINA
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. INTENSITY IS
FORECASTED TO DECREASE DUE TO THE COLD POOL OF SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OFF THE COAST OF SHANGHAI AND AS FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
FROM LAND TAKE OVER. TY 11W WILL THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER
LANDFALL AND WILL BE DISSIPATED BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
DIVERGED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE LAST RUN WITH MOST MODELS NOW
SHOWING AN UNLIKELY TRACK INTO THE STR THAT IS IN PLACE FROM THE
KOREAN PENINSULA INTO CENTRAL CHINA. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR, BUT THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE THAT THE STR IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING AT THIS TIME.
ALSO, DUE TO A GREATER DISTANCE BETWEEN 11W AND 10W INTERACTION HAS
BECOME MORE UNLIKELY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN AIDS.//
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